Yesterday in the Excel Math blog I complained about the complexity of evidence-based decision-making. I said the process is too complicated. Its very complexity and complication drives out simple but valid options. I normally talk about using elementary math in everyday life, but any curriculum selection decision-making process transcends simple math. [click image to enlarge]
Normally, mathematics is expected to produce precise and dependable
results; but in the stock market, the more elaborate and abstruse the
math, the more uncertain and speculative are the conclusions.
In 44 years of Wall Street experience, I have never seen calculations made about stock values or investment strategies that needed to go beyond simple arithmetic or elementary algebra.
Whenever calculus is brought in, or higher algebra, take it as a warning that the speaker is about to
substitute theory for experience, and make speculation
seem to be investment!
Keep this quote in mind, and substitute procurement for investment as appropriate!
Acquisition and Procurement
With a few clicks of the mouse you can investigate dozens of purchasing projects that end up being scrapped due to complexity. [ Notorious examples include US Air Force tanker aircraft contracts and the UK's NHS computer system, etc. ] I have participated in several smaller but (in)famous development projects myself.
In the Education business, we as a society (superintendent, school board, principal) appear to be going down the same path. We decide that those closest to the action (teachers, parents) can't make decisions on their own.
The process, by its very complexity, demands that decisions be made by professional evidence-sifters - pushed upwards to a higher authority, who makes a judgement affecting more than one school or district - perhaps even a whole state.
One advantage from a School District point of view is the implied credibility of this decision-making process:
- Who would criticize decisions made on the basis of facts? (Can you go wrong buying IBM?)
- Are you setting yourself up against our authority?
- After all this, why would you debate our decision?
- We eliminate smaller companies, resource-poor researchers, non-expert witnesses, or advocates from either extreme end of the spectrum
- Few decision-makers will re-study something that has been panned before
- Only the most popular products are worthy of study
- Only the most readable papers get published
- Only the most attractive ideas get funding
I'll close with an illustration from an earlier blog on objective measures for the subjective topic of pain. Please select the level of pain you associate with involvement in a procurement project:
